#statistical-section

  1. IBIT options

    What IBIT options are

  2. __Tail Hedging

    "Thus, the stock market tends to be about immediate bets (or expectations) on distant outcomes—yet all that matters to the bettors tend to…

  3. _Dictionary

    Greed Trumps Fear Every Time In The Stock Market

  4. _How to tail hedge

    Here's a simple way of protecting a stock portfolio against market risk using optimal, or least expensive, puts on SPY.

  5. 3 Good Things about Price Gouging

    As so often happens in the wake of a natural disaster, government officials in Texas are currently investigating claims of “price…

  6. 3 Ways The Exchanges Screw With Your Stop Orders

    The markets, specifically the exchanges, are totally geared towards screwing the retail investor.

  7. 70% Win Rate Setup that I Found Hiding in Plain Sight

    ](https://www.reddit.com/r/tradingmillionaires/?f=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%22)

  8. A Man for All Markets

    * Author: Edward O.

  9. A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market

    * Author: John Allen Paulos * ASIN: B003PJ6UN4 * ISBN: 0465054811 * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B003PJ6UN4 * Kindle link

  10. According to Taleb

    Taleb suggests investors ought to be “tail hedging” their portfolios as a result.

  11. AI trading system outperforms human experts, achieving record gains in real market conditions. We investigated whether its performance is credible.

    [](https://store.galileofx.com/pages/landing-classic?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=44233578&utm_content=4121166586&tb…

  12. Algorithm development stages
  13. Algorithmic Trading

    * Author: Ernest P. Chan * ASIN: B00CY5HC0U * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B00CY5HC0U * Kindle link

  14. Alpha

    Evaluating the return of an investment without regard to the risk taken offers very little insight as to how a security or portfolio has…

  15. Anti Piketti

    When Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century was published in 2015, it suffered an unexpected fate for a treatise of 700 pages…

  16. Apparent risk and Actual risk

    There are people who I will never encounter in a restaurant.

  17. AQR fat tails

    AQR is not aware that OTM options have \>\> fatter tails than underlying (+ one-tailed), hence hidden moment are substantial.

  18. Autocorrelation

    Markets are very smart in absorbing and reflecting information.

  19. Backtesting Universa strategy

    Portfolio returns are non-ergodic translated into plain English this means that the majority of investors will never get the often…

  20. BATS download of all the stock symbols they offer

    The BATS Exchange offers a nice download of all the stock symbols they offer.

  21. Beta

    Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.

  22. Beta: A Powerful But Faulty Tool For Managing Risk

    ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

  23. Big Mac Index

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/big-mac-index-purchasing-power-parity-burger-inflation/

  24. Billion Dollar Claim from Black Swan Fund Not from Taleb

    On Aug.

  25. Binary option

    In finance, a binary option is a type of option) where the payoff is either some fixed amount of some asset or nothing at all.

  26. BitCoin

    [](https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz%20%289%29_11.jpg?itok=zjrN21cy)

  27. Bitcoin is Risky. How Institutions Can Manage It

    A new paper argues that bitcoin can serve a valuable purpose in institutional portfolios, in spite of its volatility.

  28. Bitcoin Tether arbitrage

    By mapping the blockchains of Bitcoin and Tether, we are able to establish that one large player on Bitfinex uses Tether to purchase large…

  29. Bitvavo

    https://account.bitvavo.com/create?locale=nl&a=bestebank_btcvisie Nederlandse exchange voor digitale valuta’s met een eigen orderboek.

  30. Black Swan Fund (Taleb) Pounces on Vanishing Volatility

    There’s a silver lining for bears getting destroyed by record U.S. stock prices and the relentless credit boom: Prepping for Armageddon…

  31. Black Swan Hedge Funds

    This insurance requires a constant and expensive series of complex options bets.

  32. Bond Investing issues

    Professor Scott Cedarberg These finance professors have looked at historical data in many different stock and bond markets and they've…

  33. Brokers with .NET stock trading API

    Quantitative Finance Stack Exchange is a question and answer site for finance professionals and academics.

  34. BTC ETF, CFD, Options

    Options are available at three exchanges BitMEX Ledger X Deribit was launched in June 2016.

  35. BTC sentiment driven and correlation with Google search

    Well, the knowledge that this market is almost completely sentiment driven.

  36. Build Your Own Bloomberg-Killer

    The Bloomberg Terminal is the de facto standard machine for any professional working in finance.

  37. Calculate performance and ratios in Excel

    Monthly return in %: previous month / current month - 1

  38. Call Put ratio

    In normal circumstances the Put Call ratio is about 1.

  39. Casino analogy

    I eventually moved to futures because I wanted to expand my ability to extract money from the markets during periods when volatility was…

  40. CBOE - Implied Volatility Indexes

    VIX, VXD, VXN, RVX, VXO, VXV, VPD, VPN, GVZ, OVX, VXAPL, VXTH, LOVOL

  41. CBOE volatility indexes
  42. CFD Contracts for Difference

    Een spread van 2 pips is betekent dat je 0,0002 cent betaald per verhandelde eenheid.

  43. CFD Interest and Financing Charges

    How is interest charged or credited? CFD positions held overnight are subject to overnight financing.

  44. Changing circumstances

    Charlie dated his suspicion of routine to his National Service, and the war games staged to show the Russians just how prepared for attack…

  45. Codenames
  46. Cognitum Option Pricer description

    Cognitum Option Pricer estimate the option contract price, using historical price returns distribution.

  47. Cohort strategy
  48. Collapsed Complexity Predicts Market Reversals

    Executive Summary

  49. Communism

    It is well known that socialism is a shortage economy.

  50. Comparing CFD brokers

    http://www.cfdspy.com/brokers.php

  51. Complexity Economics

    * Author: W. Brian Arthur, Eric D.

  52. Contango

    Over the last couple of weeks, the concept of “contango” — the situation where a futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot…

  53. Contracts for Difference FAQ

    Source : https://www.contracts-for-difference.com/ What it Is, Who Trades CFDs & Why trade CFDs Where did CFDs come from, and why the…

  54. Contrarian investing with prediction market sentiment

    The objective is to operationalize a contrarian investment strategy by utilizing prediction markets as a sentiment proxy.

  55. Coronavirus pandemic tail-risk hedging

    The coronavirus pandemic has proved to be a terrific time for tail-risk hedging — the CBOE Eurekahedge Tail Risk Volatility Hedge Fund…

  56. Corporate Socialism The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb, With Mark Spitznagel

  57. Correlation

    The stark reality: In a crisis, correlation goes to one, and everything moves in lockstep.

  58. Covariance

    Covariance calculations can give an investor insight into how two stocks might move together in the future.

  59. Cribs and Ideas to investigate

    Slang expression for a pneumatic telegram card.

  60. Critics Claim Bitcoin Is a Threat to the Environment

    One popular critique of bitcoin is energy cost per transaction.

  61. CSFB Fear Indicator Surges To Record High

    As CS' Josh Lukeman points out, the CSFB fear indicator has soared to record highs.

  62. DATA All Yahoo Finance Stock Tickers

    Get the complete list of Yahoo stock ticker symbols in an Excel spreadsheet – over 238000 ticker symbols for stocks, ETFs, mutual funds…

  63. DATA Alpha Vantage (free)

    Backed by the prestigious Y Combinator and composed of a tight-knit community of researchers, engineers, and business professionals, Alpha…

  64. DATA BTC prices

    YAHOO https://www.google.nl/search?q=yahoo+finance+bitcoin+price&oq=yahoo+finance+bitcoin+price&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i64.6797j0j7&sourceid=c…

  65. DATA Free intraday and tick data

    Few months ago, I have made a post about where to find historical end-of-day data for the US market and I have listed 10 websites that…

  66. DATA Free Intraday Stock Data

    Overview offerings: https://rapidapi.com/blog/google-finance-api-alternatives/

  67. DATA low cost Web Services

    http://disktrading.is99.com/disktrading/ (really low cost, but according to my experiences the service and support is not very stable.

  68. DATA Market & Price Data

    List of all symbol on all exchanges http://datasrv.ddfplus.com/names/

  69. DATA Option Prices

    thinkorswim (td ameritrade)

  70. DATA Stooq Free Historical Data

    Data only for private use. Commercial use requires our permission.

  71. DATA Top 5 Quote feeds

    Historical quote vendors can be difficult to locate, as their services aren't exactly mainstream.

  72. DATA What data sources are available online

    World

  73. DATA Yahoo download

    Here's a neat way to download stock data from Yahoo, perhaps into a spreadsheet (so you can play with the data):

  74. Definition

    “Bitcoin will go through hick-ups. It may fail; but then it will be easily reinvented as we now know how it works.

  75. Definitions

    Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a secured overnight interest rate.

  76. Definitions 1

    Ergodicity refers to a property of a system where every sequence or sizable sample is equally representative of the whole.

  77. Delta hedging

    Delta hedging is an options trading strategy that aims to reduce, or hedge, the directional risk associated with price movements in the…

  78. Dukascopy tickdata downloader

    If you design an automatic trading system, the most common problem that you face is where to get the data for the testing (backtesting to…

  79. Economics Is Not Rocket Science — It's Even More Complicated

    Over the years, I have heard multiple different things described as “not rocket science.”

  80. Economy

    The Utopian Vision of normative economists (of the kind to ask you to make rational choices because that is what is deemed good for you)…

  81. Economy 1

    The Utopian Vision of normative economists (of the kind to ask you to make rational choices because that is what is deemed good for you)…

  82. ETF

    The primary Magnificent Seven ETF is the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which offers concentrated, equal-weight exposure to the…

  83. ETF name breakdown

    Example name is: iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc).

  84. ETFs
  85. Eugene Fama failure

    Fama's reasons was that Fat Tails were "incompatible with the tools in social science".

  86. Example of Prediction Market

    How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

  87. Exotic options

    There are three generations of exotics.

  88. Expected Value Analysis (Babe Ruth Effect)

    It’s not the frequency of correctness that matters – but rather the magnitude of correctness that does. . .

  89. Extreme value theory

    Extreme value theory or extreme value analysis (EVA) is a branch of statistics dealing with the extreme deviations from the median of…

  90. Failed strategies history
  91. Finally An Intelligent Approach To Black Swan Investing

    Listening to investing practitioners and pundits talk, the lay person might get the impression that investing is a rational application of…

  92. Finance AI - Open Source dotNet

    FinanceAI is an open source project under the Ms-RL license with the goal of providing advanced Artificial Intelligence, Statistical and…

  93. Findings and Analysis

    We analyzed 79 events from the November 2024 election, looking at only elections primarily contested between a Democrat and a Republican…

  94. FIX data structure & message format

    Order Status

  95. FOD Data End of Day Stock Quotes and Historical Prices

    20 years of historical data is available across a wide range of international exchanges, including: AMEX, NASDAQ, NYSE, OTCBB, FOREX, TSX…

  96. Fooled by Randomness

    * Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb * ASIN: B001FA0W5W * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B001FA0W5W * Kindle link

  97. Forecast

    * Author: Mark Buchanan * ASIN: B009IRP3GW * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B009IRP3GW * Kindle link

  98. Frequancy versus Magnitude

    The frequency of correctness does not matter; it is the magnitude of correctness that matters.

  99. FT Interview Spitznagel

    Against the herd: trader Mark Spitznagel on contrarian investing

  100. Futures

    Futures are contracts that derive value from an underlying asset such as a traditional stock, a bond or stock index.

  101. General rules

    1. Position Size: 10% of Your Account This is about trade allocation, not risk.

  102. Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average For Investment Returns

    When considering investment returns it is the geometric average, not arithmetic average, that matters.

  103. Geometric Brownian Motion Simulation with Python | QuantStart

    In this article we are going to demonstrate how to generate multiple CSV files of synthetic daily stock pricing and volume data using the analytical solution to the Geometric Brownian Motion stochastic differential equation, for the purposes of examining 'what if?' scenarios in systematic trading.

  104. Geometric mean returns

    {[(1+Return1) x (1+Return2) x (1+Return3)…)]^(1/n)]} – 1

  105. Ghost Patterns

    Renaissance invention

  106. Gini Coefficient

    The Gini coefficient is the mean expected deviation between any two data values scaled by 2 times the mean.

  107. Global Riot Against Psuedo-Experts (Taleb)

    Economist-mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb contends that there is a global riot against pseudo-experts After predicting the 2008…

  108. Golden Cross

    Below the long-only golden cross timing strategy in adjusted SPY ETF data since inception:

  109. Google searches proves to stock market prediction

    Searches of financial terms on Google can be used to predict the direction of the stock market, according to an analysis of search engine…

  110. Google Sets, Still Available

    Missing Google Sets? It's one of the first Google Labs projects and it was discontinued last year.

  111. Greeks

    delta, gamma, theta, vega, and rho, which measure the option’s sensitivity to changes in underlying asset price, implied volatility, time…

  112. Hedge Funds Jargon

    Welcome to the _Book of Jargon__® –_ Hedge Funds.

  113. Hedge Hunters

    * Author: Katherine Burton * ASIN: B003RCJE82 * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B003RCJE82 * Kindle link

  114. Here's How Hedge Funds Explore Prediction Markets For Investment Insights

    Hedge funds are beginning to utilize data from prediction markets to shape their investment strategies. Historically, hedge funds have been reluctant to engage with prediction markets due to the challenges associated with trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms often lack the depth necessary for larger bets on macro developments, and getting approval from compliance teams can be difficult. However, proprietary trading firms such as Susquehanna have begun to explore these

  115. Het geldmonopolie van de overheid en de “Great Reset”

    Het monetair stelsel van ongedekt papiergeld is een economisch en sociaal destructief systeem – met verstrekkende, schadelijke economische…

  116. Het Z-score-model

    Om uw vermogen in stand te houden, moet u zo veel mogelijk weten over risico en rendement.

  117. HFT arbitrage

    With extremely fast orders what HFT tries to achieve is take advantage of the bid-ask spread for essentially a risk-free trade.

  118. Historic properties

    “FANG,” comprised of Facebook (now Meta), Amazon, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet), as a shorthand for the best performing technology…

  119. History Is Not On The Side Of Crypto's Grave-Dancers

    On June 12, 1817 in the city of Mannheim, Germany, a local inventor by the name of Karl von Drais unveiled a brand new, futuristic…

  120. How A Goat Farmer Built A Doomsday Machine That Just Booked A 4,144% Return

    It’s early April and from his farm perched atop a hill on the edge of Lake Michigan, hedge fund investor Mark Spitznagel is dodging the…

  121. How to Beat Hedge Funds at Their Game

    Andrew Beer explains Dynamic Beta ETF’s 23% return this year

  122. How to Place more effective stops

    Having been on both sides of the aisle; the trader side and the brokerage side, I think I have a different perspective on the this issue…

  123. How To Prepare For The Coming Market Crash

    Hedge-funder Mark Spitznagel believes the central banks have created a monster they don’t know how to stop.

  124. How to Read a Financial Statement

    If you want to be a successful investor, there's one absolutely critical skill you need to acquire, and that is the ability to read a…

  125. How to Use Trigonometry to Detect Regime Changes in Financial Markets

    A step-by-step guide — computed manually and automated in Python — that shows how to obtain In‑Phase... Tagged with machinelearning, algorithms, finance.

  126. I Found A New Profitable Trading Strategy with Python

    I Found A New Profitable Trading Strategy with Python Testing a trading approach centered on the PVI indicator on Microsoft stock with the…

  127. I tested the classic S&P 500 reconstitution trade. The mechanism is real, but the easy trade seems dead.

    I've been looking at one of the most famous forced-flow anomalies in finance: the S&P 500 inclusion/deletion effect. The mechanis

  128. IG Labs API

    REST trading and streaming APIs Automate trades, build integrations and create trading apps using our market-leading CFD and spread…

  129. IG Markets

    Live prices Rekening bij IG is gratis.

  130. Images
  131. Implied Volatility

    Recently, there has been interest in 2 IV metrics: IV Rank and IV Percentile.

  132. Implied Volatility

    Youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeEsaVzVcy0&ab_channel=PatrickBoyle

  133. Import.IO Scraping service

    There is an awful lot of great data online which has the potential to power awesome next-generation apps and services.

  134. Index rebalancing

    Rating ★★★★☆

  135. IndexIQ

    If you were to put a group of rocket scientists, academics, and researchers in a jail cell for 10 years with nothing but historical stock…

  136. Inflation Hedge

    The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL), launched in…

  137. Insurance InvestorChronicle

    Apocalypse-now insurance Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the options trader turned polymath who introduced the financial world to the apocalyptic…

  138. Intelligent search engine

    Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley is describing its new Natural Language Programming bot, AskResearch as “kind of like having a junior analyst”.

  139. Interesting Products
  140. Interesting Products 1

    Simplify US Equity Plus Downside Convexity ETF SPD is one of the first ETFs to launch from Simplify.

  141. Interesting Products 2
  142. Inverse ETFs

    Inverse ETFs are one example of antifragile investments because they are designed to increase in value when market prices fall.

  143. Investing Fun Quotes

    It is much more sound to take risks you can measure than to measure the risks you are taking.

  144. ISIN code

    Option Explicit

  145. It's Not What You 'Know', It's What The Market 'Believes' That Matters

    The greatest truth about markets is it’s not what you think you know that matters.

  146. Just in time vs Just in case Hedging

    The cost of hedging can vary significantly over any given timeframe, and “just in time” hedging is nearly impossible: By the time an…

  147. Kalman Filter

    A Kalman filter is a linear model that is very popular among quantitative traders.

  148. Kalman filter pairs trading

    http://www.thealgoengineer.com/2014/online_linear_regression_kalman_filter/

  149. Leveraged ETF

    Research suggests leveraged ETF can be very suitable for short-term trading.

  150. Linear versus Non Linear regression

    Many years ago, a portfolio manager asked me in a phone interview: "Do you believe that linear or nonlinear models are more powerful in…

  151. Liquidity Effect

    Not based on information but on needing cash or rebalance.

  152. Losing per time frame
  153. Lucretius Problem

    To illustrate the dangers of using Mediocristan data sets to predict future outcomes he references the tales written by the Roman poet…

  154. Machine Learning Strategies

    There can be two types of approaches to building strategies, model based or data mining.

  155. Magnificent Seven

    The seven stocks that have most gains.

  156. Mark Spitznagel The Ticking Time Bomb

    Since the question “when is the crash going to happen?” is always asked, we thought it particularly timely to update the research we have…

  157. Market data definitions & terminology

    The goal of this article is to introduce the concepts, terminology and code structures required to develop applications that utilise…

  158. Market Facts

    De S&P 500 is sinds 1945 met 667,000% gegroeid. Inflatie gecorrigeerd 36,647%.

  159. Market Neutral Straddle Strategy

    In trading, there are numerous sophisticated trading strategies designed to help traders succeed regardless of whether the market moves up…

  160. Market phases
  161. Market Recorder for Interactive Brokers

    https://www.codeproject.com/Articles/1078609/Market-Recorder-for-Interactive-Brokers-TWS

  162. Market Winners & Draw Downs

    Since 1980 3 out of 4 months are down to all time high.

  163. Math

    Calculate log returns distribution

  164. Math 1

    Calculate log returns distribution

  165. Math tools & communities

    http://mathoverflow.net/ http://mathoverflow.net/questions/22490/correlation-and-causation-when-can-we-believe-correlation-reasonably-at-le…

  166. Medallion hedge fund strategy

    The algorithm uses non linear pair correlations using kernel functions

  167. MIT researcher created algorithm Twitter trends

    An MIT researcher says he has created an algorithm that can identify Twitter trends hours before the service can itself.

  168. Momentum

    Momentum trading refers to a general class of strategies which extrapolate from existing trends.

  169. Monte Carlo simulation

    There is no foolproof way to predict the future, but a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for the real possibility of disaster can give a…

  170. Monte Carlo Simulation 1
  171. Multicharts Supported Data Feeds

    Most traders subscribe to a real-time data feed from a data vendor, because they need to get intraday data.

  172. Nasdaq Building Tool to Predict Crypto Price Movements

    Nasdaq might be on the cusp of giving institutional investors an analytical edge on trading hundreds of crypto assets.

  173. NASDAQ Trading Schedule

    NASDAQ Stock Market regular trading sessions (Eastern Time)

  174. Nassim Taleb and Universa versus the World

    Why does everyone hate tail-risk hedgers?

  175. Nassim Taleb explains how fragile economies crumble under stress

    Nassim Taleb explains how to invest in fragile and 'antifragile' economies The author of The Black Swan explains his latest 'antifragile'…

  176. Nassim Taleb references

    Websites List of websites where you can find content related to Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  177. Nassim Taleb’s 6 tips for embracing risk

    Bestselling author and Wall Street veteran Nassim Taleb on how to build an “antifragile” portfolio

  178. Nassim Taleb's Fund Made Nassim Taleb's Fund Made $1 Billion On Monday

    You can't say Nassim Taleb didn't warn you: the outspoken academic-philosopher, best known for his prediction that six sigma "fat tail"…

  179. Negative carry

    drip-by-drip losses funds produce in good times

  180. Nicholas Taleb Against Establishment Economists

    Throwing Down the Gauntlet Nicholas Taleb is making waves again – and in a good way, as we will explain below.

  181. Notes

    It is not frequency but outcome/magnitude that drives payoff.

  182. Notes

    Just a moment... #### Annualize monthly returns https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unHD_hIzbRM #### Expected return Beta, the risk-free rate…

  183. Notes

    study risk taking, not risk management

  184. Open Source Trading Bots

    Crypto trading bots are tools used by traders to take the fear and emotion out of their trading.

  185. Open Trader .NET HFT

    Open Trader is an Open Source grade trading suite, targeted at high-frequency algorithmic trading and statistical arbitrage.

  186. Opening Gap Reversion & Futures Momentum

    Start with the SPX universe, buy the 10 stocks that gapped down most at the open, and short the 10 that gapped up most.

  187. Option ‘Strangles’ as Bitcoin Goes Quiet

    A strangle is essentially a bet that bitcoin’s price won’t break out anytime soon.

  188. Option Valuation Black Scholes
  189. Optionality 1

    The difference between a café and a restaurant? It’s not as simple as it seems.

  190. Options (as a hedging strategy)

    ITM : in the money; strike price is lower than the spot price ATM : at the money; strike and spot price are equal.

  191. Options How To (NL)

    Wanneer u opties koopt, betaalt u een premie.

  192. Order flow

    Order flow is signed transaction volume: if an order is executed at the ask price, the incremental order flow is +(order size); if…

  193. Order Flow Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

    In this article we consider Level II order book data of the most traded cryptocurrency product —BitMEX XBTUSD contract.

  194. Outcome vs Strategy based

    Outcome-Based Strategies Outcome-based investment strategies start with an expected long-term return.

  195. Overview of concrete investment ideas and strategies

    Bordereau (Frans voor 'lijst' of 'rekening') is een gedetailleerd rapport of overzicht, vaak gebruikt om grote hoeveelheden data te…

  196. Overview Prediction Markets

    https://kalshi.com/ Kalshi Inc. is an American financial exchange and prediction market based in New York City, offering event contracts.

  197. Pairs trading

    The pairs trade or pair trading is a market neutral trading strategy enabling traders to profit from virtually any market conditions…

  198. Peak-finding algorithm for Python/SciPy

    I can write something myself by finding zero-crossings of the first derivative or something, but it seems like a common-enough function to be included in standard libraries. Anyone know of one?My

  199. Performance measures

    - Sharp ratio - Sortino - Semivariance = downside only - Period Statistics: high, low, drawdown - Up days & Down days for selected periods

  200. Polycrisis

    Many things happen at the same time

  201. Precautionary principle

    Tail events are silent risks

  202. Predicting Stock and Option Prices

    I’m a Math major and work as an Analyst in Technology, but I’ve been digging into the underlying stats behind options trading and found it…

  203. Prediction is a wrong word; detect fragility - Nassim Taleb

    Q: Let me start with an autobiographical question - you are one of those rare people who profited in the 1987 crash and in the 2007 crisis…

  204. Prediction Markets

    Because markets react to predictions about them, which creates feedback loops that impact the system’s behavior and outcomes.

  205. Prediction Markets for Hedging

    You’ve been talking about prediction markets as tools for hedging, not just trading.

  206. Predictions

    Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in…

  207. Price drop periods
  208. Probability Distribution

    The Polya process can be presented as follows: Assume an urn initially containing equal quantities of black and red balls.

  209. Problem with GDP BNP

    GDP (gross domestic product, sometimes expressed as gross national product (GNP), a distinction without significance for our purposes) is…

  210. Produceer uw eigen beleggingsproduct

    Moeilijk? Valt best wel mee, een voorbeeld. Het aantal complexe én eenvoudige beleggingsproducten is sterk afgenomen.

  211. QuandlCS

    QuandlCS is a simple wrapper around the Quandl API to provide easy access.

  212. Quantitative Trading More on automated trading platforms

    The ideal software platform for automating backtesting and executing your algorithmic trading strategies depends mainly on your level of…

  213. Quotes
  214. Quotes 1
  215. Relative rotation chart

    I wanted to get into a little bit more detail about my favorite new sector rotation tool.

  216. Renaissance strategy

    Game Theory for short term only (minutes)

  217. Research

    If betting on the fat tails through out-of-the-money options is a good strategy—meaning a strategy marketable to rational people and…

  218. Risk Free Rate

    The risk-free rate of return is the theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk.

  219. Risk neutral positions out of the money puts (index puts)

    From the point of view of my option pricer far-out-of-money index puts are almost always overbought, sometimes in magnitude of tens of…

  220. Risk vs Uncertainty & Diversification

    Investments are risky. The future is uncertain.

  221. Roll-Yield

    XIV – Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX short-term ETN XIV is an ETN (exchange-traded-note) that attempts to track the inverse of the…

  222. Roman separation of money services

    Interpretes: agents, know the identity of the buyer Sequestres: where assets are deposited Divisores: distribution of assents

  223. Rule of 16

    The CBOE introduced the VIX in 1993 as a weighted measure of the implied volatility (IV)2 of S&P 100® index (OEX) options.

  224. S&P domination by 5 stocks

    In the S&P 500, the five largest stocks—Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook—account for 20% of the index.

  225. Safe Haven book summary

    At what price does safety come for investors? Cost of risk mitigation is often worse than the feared outcome

  226. Safe Haven Investing for financial storms by Mark Spitznagel

    How many times have you heard the phrase: "Higher returns can only be achieved by taking higher risks."

  227. Saxobank CFD
  228. Sentiment Mining BTC

    In August, news.Bitcoin.com previewed Predicoin, which was then in early stage development.

  229. ShortGamma Squeeze

    Far out of the money calls Option sellers need to hedge, stock price goes up Investors start buying stock Buy puts Sell options, stock…

  230. Silver Vs Stocks Comparing Performance During Recessions

    Historically, silver has been an alternative to traditional investments like stocks and bonds.

  231. Simple Stock Valuation

    I appreciate Eddy Elfenbein. He comes up with ideas that make me say, “Huh.

  232. Single-stock mean reversion

    Mean-reversion strategies work on the assumption that there is an underlying stable trend in the price of an asset and prices fluctuate…

  233. Skin in the Game

    * Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb * ASIN: B075HYVP7C * ISBN: 0241247470 * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B075HYVP7C * Kindle link

  234. Smart Beta

    So-called smart beta strategies, also known as factor-based or alternative indexing, were a hot topic at the recent Morningstar ETF Invest…

  235. Socialists Claim Their System Is Morally Superior

    In a December 23 article published on mises.org, Lipton Matthews made the compelling case for advocates of free market capitalism to…

  236. Software Packages

    NexTicNexTick is an open source software solution for stock traders [day and swing traders].

  237. Sources

    Quiver Quantitative Trade like an insider (track congress members trading)

  238. Speculation

    Speculation is a method for adjusting differences of opinion as to future values whether of products or of stocks.

  239. Spitznagel Tail Hedge strategy

    Learn to seek understanding over data. Ask why a trend exists, who benefits from it, and what would cause it to break.

  240. Statistical Arbitrage using Neural Network

    Instead of focusing on predicting price direction and price volatility with nonlinear models derived with machine learning methods, an…

  241. Statistical Section

    The "Statistical Section" (or Section de Statistique) was the deliberately innocuous cover name for the French Army's counter-espionage…

  242. Stop Loss strategy

    All trading is gambling. Some people refuse to believe it but that doesn’t change it.

  243. Stoxx 600 index

    Europese aandelenindex Stoxx 600

  244. Strategy

    It is not frequency but outcome/magnitude that drives payoff.

  245. Swaps

    A swap is an agreement between two parties to exchange sequences of cash flows for a set period of time.

  246. Tail Hedging
  247. Tail Hedging - Universa

    CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index (VXTH)

  248. Tail Hedging 2

    Last week I shared an article on Twitter in which Nassim Taleb, of "Black Swan" fame, was asked, "What are the biggest risks out there…

  249. Tail Reaper

    As the name of our Tail Reaper program implies, it is designed to benefit from tail events.

  250. Tail risk hedging

    Another Tail Risk Hedge Fund Had Eye-Popping March Returns

  251. Tail Risk Hedging ETFs

    A form of protecting funds during a market crash, tail risk hedging ETFs also helped out many investors during 2020 and 2022.

  252. Tails are all that matters

    But once you go through something like that, you realize that the tail-end consequences – the low-probability, high-impact events – are…

  253. Taleb

    “You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept” — captures a radical idea: true wealth is not measured…

  254. Taleb Minority Rule

    The minority rule will show us how it all it takes is a small number of intolerant virtuous people with skin in the game, in the form of…

  255. Taleb Quotes

    What investors don't know can matter far more than what they think they know—a timely reminder for digital-asset markets where volatility…

  256. Taleb, the Barbell Portfolio and Safety-First Financial Planning

    The “barbell” portfolio has long been considered an investment strategy.

  257. The Black Swan Index Revisited

    Dec.

  258. The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model

    C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500.

  259. The great reset

    The unbacked paper money system is an economically and socially destructive system—with far-reaching and harmful economic and social…

  260. The Greeks

    Delta (~0.50 ATM): How much your option moves per $1 stock move.

  261. The Man Who Solved the Market

    * Author: Gregory Zuckerman * ASIN: B07NLFC63Y * ISBN: 0593086317 * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B07NLFC63Y * Kindle link

  262. The One Thing An Investor Should Never Fail To Do

    Uncertainty should not bother you.

  263. The Physics of Finance: Predicting the Unpredictable

    * Author: James Owen Weatherall * ASIN: B00B73VMB0 * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B00B73VMB0 * Kindle link

  264. The Real Stock Market Risk Is the One You Can't See

    There is supposed to be one fundamental truth in investing: If you take on more risk, you can expect a bigger reward.

  265. The VIX Is Dead, Long Live The 0DTE VIX

    Trading in zero-day-to-expiry contracts continues to dominate the options market, leaving the VIX unreflective of underlying market risks.

  266. There's Nothing Wrong with Short Selling

    The recent GameStop short-squeeze drama has riveted financial markets.

  267. Thomas Sowell Quotes

    It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who…

  268. Time Series Analysis
  269. Tobin Q

    The Q-Ratio is just the total value of the stock market (numerator) relative to the total net worth of the companies that comprise it…

  270. TobinQ

    One thing that really jumped out at me while reading it was Spitznagel’s research regarding Tobin’s Q, (though he calls it, “The Misesian…

  271. Trackers moeten hun gekozen index evenaren. Waarom lukt dat niet altijd

    Wie snuffelt tussen de vele trackers of etfs op de site van Morningstar stuit op opvallende cijfers.

  272. Trade like Taleb

    Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous, concrete office park somewhere in the woods outside Greenwich, Connecticut.

  273. Trade sizing - Kelly Criterion

    Maximize rate of growth should bet a constant fraction of cash on hand.

  274. Tradelink - Open Source
  275. Trading applications source code

    Javatraders http://groups.google.com/group/JavaTraders To access this group is free, you only need to register.

  276. Trading is Probabilities, Not Predictions

    Do you sometimes wonder what separates successful traders from the 90% who fail?

  277. Trading parameters

    The 7% rule: A simple rule to cut losses by selling a stock if its price drops 7% below the purchase price, helping remove emotion from…

  278. Trading software projects and products

    Most Active Free & Open-Source Projects

  279. Trading With a Stop

    Nassim Taleb one of the greatest risk philosophers of the last century plus has just published a paper: Trading With a Stop

  280. Twitter Search syntax

    With over 2,000 new tweets posted every second, there's a heck of a lot of information to wade through on Twitter, especially if you're…

  281. UBS hedging for privates

    Afraid stock-market record highs will give way to a fall?

  282. Understanding Option Pricing

    You might have had success beating the market by trading stocks using a disciplined process that anticipates a nice move either up or down.

  283. Understanding VIX

    The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the implied volatility on S&P 500 Index options with a 30 day forward expiration.

  284. Universa article

    March 2020 was a rough month for hedge funds, with a dismal industry performance of negative eight point one two percent returns across…

  285. Universa how to Hedge Coronavirus

    ‘Black Swan’ fund Universa made huge gains in February as markets swooned from coronavirus risk without making any assumptions about the…

  286. Universa insights

    The famous quadruple-digit returns that make headlines when a crisis hits aren’t everything they may seem.

  287. Universa on Making Money While Markets Crash

    Mark Spitznagel, the founder of hedge fund Universa Investments, is one of the most interesting figures in the world of hedge funds.

  288. Universa pitch

    We all want higher returns with lower risk, but of course the two are seen as a trade‑off.

  289. Universa strategy

    The strategies Empirica used were based around buying out of money call and put options.

  290. User Interface (GUI)
  291. Uses And Limits Of Volatility

    Investors like to focus on the promise of high returns, but they should also ask how much risk they must assume in exchange for these…

  292. Various

    Geometric Brownian Motion

  293. Various Snippets

    News Driven Means Reversion Let's say FTSE100 is 7350 and you fancy an upward movement.

  294. VIX

    Historically the VIX has been about 1% higher than the SP500's actual volatility, and this implied volatility bias has been even higher in…

  295. VIX as reversal indicator

    The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a widely followed sentiment indicator.

  296. VIX instruments

    SVXY ZIV VXX VXZ VRP

  297. VIX too high

    VIX is usually 1% higher than the S&P

  298. Volatility is a Poor Measure of Risk and Alternatives

    Volatility (standard deviation) is the standard and widely accepted definition of investment risk.

  299. VXX Hedging

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBo5HHANlis

  300. Wallstreet bets indicator

    https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/home

  301. We tempt fate by disagreeing on BTC with Taleb

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb is one of our intellectual heroes.

  302. WH Selfinvest CFD

    Koersen zijn identiek aan beurskoersen, geen verhoogde spread.

  303. What Capitalism Really Means

    Descriptive terms which people use are often quite misleading.

  304. What If the Market Drops 50% Again? Staying the Course

    One thing I think about sometimes is what happens if we see another major market crash, something like a 50% decline similar to 2008-2009…

  305. Why 6040 Visualizing 90 Years Of Stock & Bond Portfolio Performance

    Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years.

  306. Why Does Bitcoin’s Price Make Random, Sudden Downward Moves

    A common knock on bitcoin is that it is “too volatile.”

  307. Why some people are poor - Henry Hazlitt

    Throughout history, until about the middle of the 18th century, mass poverty was nearly everywhere the normal condition of man.

  308. Why This Bubble Economy Keeps Going and Going

    Quite a few people may wonder why the global fiat money system has not yet collapsed.

  309. XIRR

    XIRR = IRR for series: Computes the internal rate of return (IRR) for a non-periodic cash flow, i.e., where each payment made or received…

  310. Yahoo Finance symbol data

    Here is a list of the data available:

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