Example of Prediction Market
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
| Percentage | Volume | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 59k | 65% |
| 5.5% | 174k | 35% |
| 6.0% | 48k | 18% |
| 7.0% | 16k | 14% |
| 10% | 19k | 7% |
| Source: Polymarket March 2026 |
Markets are pricing in +60% chance that the unemployment rate reaches 5% this year and a one in three chance that a nefarious economic outcome happens in 2026 but, has the odds of more aggressive Fed rate cuts, which would surely be the response to such a negative economic outcome, at less than 10%.
