Forecast
Forecast
Metadata
- Author: Mark Buchanan
- ASIN: B009IRP3GW
- Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B009IRP3GW
- Kindle link
Highlights
In the first three months of 2011, for example, individual stocks showed perplexing moves in 139 cases, rising or falling about 1 percent or more in less than a second, only to recover. Nanex detected6 1,818 such occurrences in 2010 and 2,715 in 2009. The May 6, 2010, crash simply seems larger than similar events taking place all the time. — location: 174 ^ref-52245
The weather is rich and variable and full of endless surprises. There is no simple and universal “theory of the weather.” Instead we have a profusion of associated models and concepts and theories that meteorologists find useful for understanding different aspects of the weather—one for thunderstorms over the plains, another for hurricanes developing over the sea, and another still for fog forming at the earth’s surface. — location: 375 ^ref-63176
Similarly, a science of markets and economics should not seek a universal theory, but rather an assortment of related models and theories attuned to specific phenomena—to rapid market fluctuations driven by high-frequency trading, or to daily movements driven by trend-following speculators, or to instabilities forming over months or years due to larger social changes, such as the trend in subprime lending. — location: 378 ^ref-14789
The task is to identify when and where such feedbacks are likely to become active, how we can detect their presence, and, if it is warranted, take steps to defuse their energy. — location: 386 ^ref-7557
With notably rare exceptions, Germany remained largely at peace with its neighbors during the 20th century. With notably rare exceptions, Alan Greenspan has been right about everything. — location: 831 ^ref-29448
The upright pencil is in what’s called unstable equilibrium, a state of being that can exist if unperturbed, but that will change rapidly if given the tiniest shock from the physical world, which is of course inevitable. — location: 849 ^ref-52144
A key statistic they considered was volatility—roughly speaking, the typical magnitude of price movements each day (regardless of their being up or down.) Day to day, markets come with a certain level of volatility, but a sudden big event tends to create a more volatile market. Afterward, it takes some time before the volatility falls back to the norm. In their study, Bouchaud, Lefèvre, and Joulin found a striking result: the market following news events went back to the norm much more quickly than it did following the no-news events. — location: 1142 ^ref-52719
1999 book A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, — location: 1193 ^ref-34730
