Scratchpad

Reciprocal information.

Bounded rationality 

I would describe complex systems as multivariable nonlinear systems. And multivariable nonlinear systems are very hard to predict. They can behave one way for a long time, and then one variable can switch, and they can behave another way—the weather, stock markets, all these things. There are consequences that can be first, second, or third-order.