#math

Regression techniques are one of the most popular statistical techniques used for predictive modeling and data mining tasks.

This famously occurred in Monte Carlo Casino in 1913.

Even a rudimentary look at probability can give new insights about how to interpret data.

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A-posteriori-kennis is kennis afgeleid uit de ervaring.

The probabilistic syllogism of hypothesis testing has the same structure as the following simple example (devised by Jeff Gill in his…

Let's use this addition rule to find the probability for Experiment 1.

Risk ratios (RR) and odds ratios (OR) are both used to analyze factors associated with increased risk of disease.

On Monday, citing a congressional mandate and reports of drones near airplanes, the FAA announced that any unmanned flying vehicle heavier…

MP4 movie

There are two symbols in math that are often used to denote the mean. σ, the lowercase greek letter sigma, refers to the population mean.

The concepts of Linear Algebra are crucial for understanding the theory behind Machine Learning, especially for Deep Learning.

PICTURE this: you and a partner have committed a crime.

On Saturday night millions of people all over Europe — all over the world, in fact — tuned in to the annual Eurovision Song Contest, a…

In statistics, the Bonferroni correction is a method used to counteract the problem of multiple comparisons.

Source URL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

If we are serious about measuring and improving, forecasts must have clearly defined terms and timelines.

Probability distributions have a surprising number inter-connections.

The plot of our population of data suggests that the college entrance test scores for each subpopulation have equal variance.

If you’re trying to gain a rapid understanding of a new area, one of the most important things you can do is to identify common mistakes…

A confidence interval is an interval in which a measurement or trial falls corresponding to a given probability.

Have you noticed that in most cities, every time there are lots of umbrellas, it's raining?

Nines and sigmas are two ways to measure quality.

The benefit of using a correlation coefficient to measure the relationship between two variables as opposed to using covariance is that…

We can only hope that the chart below, which shows a rather disturbing linkage between consumption of chocolate (in kg/yr/capita) and…

Correlation and cointegration, while theoretically similar, are not the same.

In probability theory and statistics, skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution of a real-valued random…

The childhood game of Rock, Paper, Scissors is a simple example of a nontransitive rule.

There are many ways to measure financial portfolio performance and determine if an investment strategy is successful.

Why are election polls often inaccurate? Why is racism wrong?

In a jury of 12 people, it’s not likely that many will understand probability.

The birthday problem, sometimes called the birthday paradox, says that it’s more likely than you’d expect that two people in a group have…

When considering investment returns it is the geometric average, not arithmetic average, that matters.

In statistics and in statistical physics, Gibbs sampling or a Gibbs sampler is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for obtaining a…

The Gompertz curve or Gompertz function is a type of mathematical model for a time series, named after Benjamin Gompertz (1779–1865).

The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful in forecasting…

Group Method of Data Handling* was applied in a great variety of areas for data mining and knowledge discovery, forecasting and systems…

The Expected F1 (EF1) is the harmonic mean of expected Precision and Recall.

Using a sigmoid function. C++, VS, AlgLib-based

real-statistics.com Free Excel add-in with statistic tools

To introduce Bayesian regression modeling, we consider a dataset from De Veaux, Velleman and Bock which collected physical measurements…

Jakob Bernoulli first proved this theorem regarding large numbers, which many of us know from our studies of statistics.

The ludic fallacy is a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan.

In statistics, the mean squared error (MSE) of an estimator is one of many ways to quantify the difference between values implied by an…

The most common one concerns the interpretation of evidence.

Today's column, by Nicholas Balakar, is in error. The column begins:

In game theory, Nash equilibrium (named after John Forbes Nash, who proposed it) is a solution concept of a game involving two or more…

As I am writing these lines I see the following headlines on my Bloomberg: - Dow is up 1.03 on lower interest rates. - Dollar down 0.12…

The following conundrum is like one that Peters used but illustrates the point a little better.

Sometimes a little bit of Python beats a Google search.

This article provides an overview of the main models available for modelling time series and forecasting their evolution.

In statistical hypothesis testing, the p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one that was…

You don’t have to wait long to see a headline proclaiming that some food or behavior is associated with either an increased or a decreased…

Saying something may happen with 80% probability and sizing your trade against that chance isn't the same as predicting that it will…

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a mathematical procedure that uses an orthogonal transformation to convert a set of observations of…

"The danger is that by extending probability to everything, it is easy to be seduced into thinking that one tool—calculating…

Causality: There is another problem; even assuming statistical significance, one has to accept a cause and effect, meaning that the event…

Pareidolia – the psychological phenomenon of perceiving patterns in randomness

The discovery of a winning strategy for Prisoner's Dilemma is forcing game theorists to rethink their discipline.

Already in 1921, the American economist Frank Knight distinguished risk from uncertainty.

In Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage uses the illustration of shaking a ladder to explain why someone would want to use Monte Carlo simulation.

In Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage uses the illustration of shaking a ladder to explain why someone would want to use Monte Carlo simulation.

Simpson's Paradox occurs when a trend observed in aggregated data reverses when the data is divided into subgroups, often due to the…

I saw on Twitter this afternoon a paraphrase of a quote from Nassim Taleb to the effect that if you see a six-sigma event, that’s evidence…

Mark Twain is credited with introducing into the American vernacular the phrase, “Lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Chapter 8 Statistics in SQL The recipes in this chapter show you how to effectively use SQL for common statistical operations.

One standard deviation away from the mean in either direction on the horizontal axis (the red area on the above graph) accounts for…

Tutorial On Principal Component Analysis with the Accord.NET Fetching Data#tm8r

In mathematics, the nth taxicab number, typically denoted Ta(n) or Taxicab(n), is defined as the smallest number that can be expressed as…

To physicists, the gold standard for a discovery is what they call a "5-sigma" bump, where sigma is a measure of bumpiness known as a…

Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam

* Author: Henri Poincare * ASIN: B008ZPG6JQ * ISBN: 0375758488 * Reference: https://amazon.com/dp/B008ZPG6JQ * Kindle link

Trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data.

Especially black umbrellas

He says Carl Jung once claimed that if you collected a sample of 1,000 pebbles, you could calculate the average weight of a pebble on the…

A test of a disease presents a rate of 5% false positives.

Fermi Questions is a Science Olympiad event that asks you to approximate a quantity that's hard or impossible to measure directly.

THE British players in the unfolding swine-flu drama are providing a riveting case study of different responses to risk.