Absurd Statistics
The probabilistic syllogism of hypothesis testing has the same structure as the following simple example (devised by Jeff Gill in his paper "The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing"):
- If a person is an American then it is highly unlikely she is a member of Congress.
- The person is a member of Congress.
- Therefore it is highly unlikely she is an American.
The absurdity of hypothesis testing should be clear.
Otherwise, you could fall into the trap of believing that your chance of winning the Jackpot in a Lottery is 50%, on the grounds that there are just two alternatives, either you win or you do not!
Nontransitive dice. The childhood game of Rock, Paper, Scissors is a simple example of a nontransitive rule. Rock beats (breaks) Scissors, Scissors beats (cuts) Paper, and Paper beats (covers) Rock
