Trend estimation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data. When a series of measurements of a process are treated as a time series, trend estimation can be used to make and justify statements about tendencies in the data. By using trend estimation it is possible to construct a model which is independent of anything known about the nature of the process of an incompletely understood system (for example, physical, economic, or other system). This model can then be used to describe the behaviour of the observed data.
In particular, it may be useful to determine if measurements exhibit an increasing or decreasing trend which is statistically distinguished from random behaviour. Some examples are: determining the trend of the daily average temperatures at a given location, from winter to summer; or the trend in a global temperature series over the last 100 years. In the latter case, issues of homogeneity are important (for example, about whether the series is equally reliable throughout its length).
