Investing Quotes
tags:
- statistical-section
- investing
- quotes category: language Private: false Confidential: false created: 27-01-2026 updated: 30-05-2026
Risk appetite and Pain tolerance
Poverty in society is overcome by productivity, and in no other way
Fluctuat nec mergitur (fluctuates but doesn’t sink)
I short money using debt. Then I buy real value like stocks.
Market bottoms are events but tops are processes
When did noah build the ark? Before the rain!
Take worst crash in history times 1.5 (Taleb)
The investment business is about craftsmanship, he says, and a craftsman is an apprentice first.
Worsifiers
We tend to focus too much on what we have or don’t have, rather than on what we stand to lose
One of the key fallacies that Taleb identifies in the world of money and investments is the belief that wealth can be accumulated and preserved through careful planning and analysis. He argues that this view is flawed because it assumes that the future can be predicted and that risks can be quantified and managed. In reality, the future is inherently uncertain, and risks are often unpredictable and unquantifiable. Therefore, the pursuit of wealth can be a trap that leads us to ignore the risks and uncertainties that are inherent in the world of finance.
The Power of Grit: the ability to persevere in the face of adversity
Give a man a gun, he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, he can rob the world.
Volatility tax: -50% needs +100% to recover
"There is no evil in things changing, just as there is no good in persisting in a new state." Marcus Aurelius Economie gaat om actie, niet om evenwicht
The tail wags the dog effect. Centrally, the more fat-tailed the distribution, the more “the tail wags the dog", that is, the more statistical information resides in the extremes and the less in the “bulk" (that is the events of high frequency), where it becomes almost noise.
The truth is that, most of the time, we do not really know why the things that work in investing actually work. But we still need to work (invest), and put our best foot forward at it. And that is why, the simple idea of knowing that you do not know and then buying into…
The truth is that, most of the time, we do not really know why the things that work in investing actually work.
It's like driving a car by looking in the rear view mirror - fine as long as the road continues straight but disastrous when you reach the first corner
Speculations is like asking a group of people to pick the winning girl in a pageant. Not the girl you think is the prettiest but the girl the judges think is prettiest - Third degree J M Keynes
According to reports, some of those who put their faith in Mr Madoff suspected that he was engaged in wrongdoing, but not the sort that would endanger their money
Traders do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets.
The difference between fear and panic
"Not only have I never heard of anyone who engaged in successful market timing. I have never even known anyone who knew anyone who engaged in successful market timing.” John Bogle No offense but what you don't know could fill a warehouse.
It's easier to verify real #bitcoin than it is to verify real gold.
A thing appears random only through the incompleteness of our knowledge.” – Spinoza
All models are wrong. Some are lethal.
Wag the dog = tail hedging
The accuracy of a forecast is measured only in profits
When you hedge, treat the possible as likely. When you speculate, treat the likely as merely possible
Ignorance produces astonishment
"Mystery is not the absence of meaning, but the presence of more meaning than we can comprehend." Eugene Peterson
If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidize it.
“It takes a lot more courage and cunning to make money as a bear than a bull,” said Joseph P. Kennedy, first chairman of the SEC and father of president John F. Kennedy.
Aristotelian thought was overthrown by empirically based science, in part due to unexpected discoveries like black swans
Probability Beats Predictions
Spitznagel: We tend to lose or draw—most of the time—these small battles or skirmished. But, ultimately, we win the wars
The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System
It is a cliché but remember that investing well is simple but not easy. But, despite all the hardships – the mistakes and the misses – that investment decision making involves, it is a journey that is well worth it. And the easiest way to start this journey is with an admission of ignorance. Because that will bring you the desired humility of knowing what you know, what you don’t, what matters, what doesn’t, what is in your control, what is not, and where you would like to reach at the end of it, and where you wouldn’t.
Now let me tell you what is right in my mind. I think I have two fears. One fear is deflation and one fear is inflation and I have learned through history that there is no such thing as inflation anymore. There is hyperinflation or nothing.
Memory-less investing: I would hope that this will take two more weeks but I will act as if it is going to be 17 years. So there is a difference between what you hope and how you act.
The way you invest for tomorrow should exactly be the same way you invest for 100 years. Let me give an anecdote. The main difference between an investor and a trader. A trader who loses money on his trade becomes an investor and says I am in it for the long term. If they make money, they get out. If you depend on what happens tomorrow, you cannot say I have invested for 100 years. If you ever had to change allocation tomorrow based on new information, then you are investing for one day. And this is a big thing.
Actually it was strangely enough there in my first technical book published 23 years ago called Dynamic Hedging where I explained that it is the wrong way to push problems. I want to invest for tomorrow but I treat it the same way and it is the same reasoning. So I would treat everything on both short term and long term and I would say everybody should do that because if you are going to invest for 20 years and if there is any reason for you to change allocation tomorrow because you find something monstrously more attractive, you saw that a great mansion someone is bankrupt selling it and you switch out, then you are effectively investing for 24 hours.
Empirical" simulations are not predictive in the naïve intrapolative way
American investor David Einhorn said, VaR is like "an airbag that works all the time, except when you have a car accident."
Options have been around for centuries-pre-dating shares, being used for pricing ships’ cargoes.
Investing is the word we use for a trade that went wrong!
